Is our project rational?
Probably: a 58% chance the plan pays off
Today, losses over 3 years are over your tolerance from €1.6M up; with the plan they stay within it, for an expected cost of €555k.
Proposal
It is proposed to approve an investment of €555k for implementing and operating Data Security Posture Management (DSPM), Data Loss Prevention (DLP), and AI Governance as the investment is expected to generate a positive RoSI.
Summary
The initiative reduces expected loss by €2.5M and lowers the probability of exceeding the €3M a year once-in-20-years tolerance over 3 years by 12 percentage points, from 16% to 4%, and brings losses within the whole tolerance curve (today over it from €1.6M up). Expected net value comes out at €2M, contributing to a RoSI likely between -346% and 971% (60% CI) and a 58% chance of positive return.
Investment, expected over 3 years
Cost
€555k
Risk reduction
€2.5M
Additional benefit
€0
Net value
€2M
RoSI
357%
P(RoSI>0)
58%
Risk, over 3 years
Expected loss
−51%
Worst case (P95)
−50%
P(Loss>Tolerance)
−12 pts
Expected records
−94%
Against your tolerance, over 3 years
Over 3 years, losses pass 2 of your 3 limits more often than you accept today; with the plan, none.
| Losses above | You accept | Today | With the plan |
|---|---|---|---|
| €600,000 almost every year × 3 | 95% | 85% | 70% |
| €2,400,000 half the years × 3 | 50% | 57% | 36% |
| €9,000,000 once in 20 years × 3 | 5% | 16% | 4% |
| Whole curve | Over your tolerance from €1.6M up | Within your whole tolerance |
Your yearly tolerance × 3 years, compared with the total loss over the horizon.
Return on Security Investment
Project description
Investment includes 3 activities with an expected cost of €555k and an expected added benefit of €0. 3 activities have risk mitigation potential.
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations over the 3-year horizon.